 

The PROCAMAlgorithm for men (Cox proportional hazards model). 

The PROCAMAlgorithm, described in the Pocket Guide to Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (2002: page 27/128), estimates the risk for acute coronary events within 10 years (ACE = fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction [AMI] or sudden coronary death) based on measurements of the 8 risk factors as noted below (ycoefficients) statistically evaluated by the Cox proportional hazards model in the PROCAM cohort with 325 ACE in 4818 men aged 3565 years within 10 years. The PROCAMAlgorithm has an advantage over the PROCAMScore in calculating the effects of treatment on coronary risk and also avoids the distorsion that may occur when risk is calculated in persons whose risk factors lie at the border between two risk factor categories. log(TGL) means logarithmus naturalis (ln, ^{e}log) of triglycerides.
 The probability for CHD in % within 10 years is: P = 100 x (1  0.9369^{a}) for a = exp(y). 

y risk factors in  mmol/L  (input range)  rsp.  mg/dl  (input range) 

y =  8.9769      

+  0.103 x age  (3565 years)     +  0.010 x systolic blood pressure  (100225 mmHg)    

+  0.5026 x LDLcholesterol  (1.946.48 mmol/l)  rsp.  0.013 x LDLC  (75250 mg/dl) 

  1.2372 x HDLcholesterol  (0.651.94 mmol/l)  rsp.  0.032 x HDLC  (2575 mg/dl) 

+  0.317 x log(TGL x 88.57)  (0.574.56 mmol/l)  rsp.  0.317 x log(TGL)  (50400 mg/dl) 

+  0.658 x cigarette smoking  x (0=no,1=yes)  any  cigarette during  the past 12 months 

+  0.399 x diabetes mellitus  x (0=no,1=yes)   known DM  or fasting blood glucose levels >= 6.66 mmol/l (120 mg/dl)  

+  0.382 x myocardial infarction in family history  x (0=no,1=yes)  MI  in 1^{st} degree relative  before the age of 60 years 

MODIFICATIONS of P     PROCAM (D:)  female without diabetes  → 0.25 x P   AGLA 2003 (CH:)  men and female postmenopausal  → 0.7 x P   female without diabetes premenopausal  → 0.25 x 0.7 x P 
.F.A.
 
